Wins‑First CFB Top‑25

Model vs AP — Biggest Weekly Wins & Misses

Ranks reality, not predictions. Not a prediction model — correlations with AP reflect evaluation differences, not inputs.

← Back to current rankings · Week 6 · Week 7

Each week, I log the model’s clearest calls it got right vs the AP, plus one honest miss.

Week 6 Highlights

Model Wins

  • Texas LOST @ Florida — upset by AP‑unranked Florida. Direct contradiction: AP had Texas ranked, I did not.
    AP (Texas): #9; AP (Florida): NR · My: Texas NR
  • Penn State LOST @ UCLA — upset by AP‑unranked UCLA. Direct contradiction: AP had PSU ranked, I did not.
    AP (Penn State): #7; AP (UCLA): NR · My: Penn State NR
  • Memphis WON vs Tulsa — AP left them out; I had them in and they dominated.
    AP (Memphis): NR · My: #25

One Miss

  • Oregon — I was more conservative than AP (Top‑3 vs #6); subsequent performance suggested narrowing that gap.
    AP: #3 vs My: #6

Week 7 Highlights

Model Wins

  • Florida State LOST vs Pitt — Pitt won @ Florida State. Direct contradiction: AP had FSU ranked; I had them NR.
    AP (FSU): #25 · My: NR
  • Arizona State LOST @ BYU — AP ranked ASU; I had them NR (I had BYU ranked).
    AP (ASU): #21; AP (BYU): #18 · My: ASU NR, BYU #15
  • Cincinnati WON vs UCF — AP left Cincy out; I had them ranked. i.e. Cincy is a team we should pay attention to!
    AP (Cincinnati): NR · My: #17
  • Tulane WON vs ECU — AP left Tulane out; I had them ranked. i.e. Tulane is a team we should pay attention to!
    AP (Tulane): NR · My: #22

One Miss

  • Notre Dame BEAT NC State (convincingly) — I left ND out; result argues for inclusion/upgrade.
    AP (ND): #16 · My: NR

Week 8 Chaos Week 🔥

Week 8 delivered absolute chaos with upsets across the board — a perfect stress test for the model.

Model Wins

  • Memphis LOST to UAB — upset by unranked UAB 31-24. Direct contradiction: AP had Memphis ranked, I did not.
    AP (Memphis): #22; AP (UAB): NR · My: Memphis NR
  • Nebraska LOST to Minnesota — got destroyed 24-6 by unranked Minnesota. Direct contradiction: AP had Nebraska ranked, I did not.
    AP (Nebraska): #25; AP (Minnesota): NR · My: Nebraska NR
  • Cincinnati DEMOLISHED Oklahoma State — won 49-17. AP had them way too low; I had them much higher recognizing their quality.
    AP (Cincinnati): #24 · My: #13

One Miss

  • Notre Dame BEAT USC (convincingly) — ND won 34-24 over ranked USC. I left ND out of my Top-25; AP had them at #13 and they backed it up.
    AP (ND): #13; AP (USC): #20 · My: ND NR (outside Top-25)

How to Read This

Each bullet explicitly shows AP rank vs My rank before kickoff. I favor logging cases where an AP‑ranked team I had NR lost — those are the strongest receipts.