Each week, I log the model’s clearest calls it got right vs the AP, plus one honest miss.
Week 6 Highlights
Model Wins
- Texas LOST @ Florida — upset by AP‑unranked Florida. Direct contradiction: AP had Texas ranked, I did not.
AP (Texas): #9; AP (Florida): NR · My: Texas NR - Penn State LOST @ UCLA — upset by AP‑unranked UCLA. Direct contradiction: AP had PSU ranked, I did not.
AP (Penn State): #7; AP (UCLA): NR · My: Penn State NR - Memphis WON vs Tulsa — AP left them out; I had them in and they dominated.
AP (Memphis): NR · My: #25
One Miss
- Oregon — I was more conservative than AP (Top‑3 vs #6); subsequent performance suggested narrowing that gap.
AP: #3 vs My: #6
Week 7 Highlights
Model Wins
- Florida State LOST vs Pitt — Pitt won @ Florida State. Direct contradiction: AP had FSU ranked; I had them NR.
AP (FSU): #25 · My: NR - Arizona State LOST @ BYU — AP ranked ASU; I had them NR (I had BYU ranked).
AP (ASU): #21; AP (BYU): #18 · My: ASU NR, BYU #15 - Cincinnati WON vs UCF — AP left Cincy out; I had them ranked. i.e. Cincy is a team we should pay attention to!
AP (Cincinnati): NR · My: #17 - Tulane WON vs ECU — AP left Tulane out; I had them ranked. i.e. Tulane is a team we should pay attention to!
AP (Tulane): NR · My: #22
One Miss
- Notre Dame BEAT NC State (convincingly) — I left ND out; result argues for inclusion/upgrade.
AP (ND): #16 · My: NR
How to Read This
Each bullet explicitly shows AP rank vs My rank before kickoff. I favor logging cases where an AP‑ranked team I had NR lost — those are the strongest receipts.